Dive Brief:
- Of the blockchain platforms in development, the one that will "win" is the "one not yet in the market," according to Ray Valdes, VP and Gartner Fellow, speaking at the Gartner Symposium/ITxpo in Orlando earlier this month.
- On its way toward the "trough of disillusionment" in Gartner's hype cycle, blockchain technology has a long ways to go before it reaches maturity. Blockchain is on a steady "slow growth ramp" until 2030, when the exponential growth curve kicks in, said Valdes. By 2030, blockchain will have a $3.1 trillion business value-add.
- Right now there are about 100 blockchain platforms being built, but none are compatible and 90% have yet to be released, according to Valdes. And there are only two truly operational blockchain platforms available: Bitcoin and Ethereum, though Valdes said Bitcoin is "doomed" as a platform.
Dive Insight:
Quite a few advanced technologies are suffering from inflated expectations. Like artificial intelligence and other future technologies, organizations are eager to use blockchain, though most platforms are still in their infancy.
The problem is that 90% of blockchain projects businesses are working on have centralized designs, which don't actually require blockchain technology, according to Valdes. Businesses would save time and money creating more secure projects if they avoided blockchain altogether.
One of the issues is what Valdes refers to as a CEO or board of directors problem. Company leadership often asks for blockchain proof of concepts, which can be "pointless" as more mature technologies are available and many projects don't require blockchain to begin with.
But will blockchain eventually have its day in the sun? Almost certainly. The technology just needs time to mature and businesses need a clear vision of what they want to use the ledger platform for.
