Dive Brief:
- After a dismal year for PC sales, shipments showed upward movement in the last quarter of 2023, inching into positive growth with a 0.3% year-over-year increase, according to Gartner analysis.
- Sales experienced a prolonged, post-pandemic slump dating back to the final quarter of 2021, when shipments declined to 88.4 million units, a full 25 million units more than in the final three months of last year.
- Despite the slump, growth and price hikes loom as organizations enter delayed refresh cycles, according to Mikako Kitagawa, director analyst at Gartner. “PC demand is going to go up and semiconductor manufacturers have restricted component production, which means prices are going to go up, too,” Kitagawa said.
Dive Insight:
Refresh cycles are inevitable. Every organization eventually has to replace aging hardware.
But the last several years disrupted business as usual for the PC industry. The rush to purchase devices to support remote workforce in 2020 gave way to product glut, both for vendors and component manufacturers.
“Inventory surpluses was a really big problem in the PC industry for two years,” Kitagawa said. Retailers responded with discounts and promotions as shipments fell to their lowest level in 16 years, according to Gartner.
Now, with Microsoft gearing up to end Windows 10 support in 2025 and a new generation of AI-enabled PCs hitting the market, the refresh bill is coming due.
Kitagawa said Gartner expects product shipments to grow between 4% and 5% as demand aligns with supply this year.
IDC market analysis also shows the PC market bottomed out, falling 13.9% year over year in 2023. The IT market intelligence firm forecasts 3.4% market growth this year.
"Across the major technology categories, the PC market has arguably been the biggest roller coaster in terms of ups and downs over the past four years," Ryan Reith, group VP for IDC’s Mobility and Consumer Device Trackers, said in a report last week.
“While AI has clearly captured everyone's attention, it shouldn't be overlooked that 2024 is expected to be a strong year for commercial PC refresh,” Reith said.
