Dive Brief:
- Data scientists at Information Control Corp. released their predictions for the 88th Academy Awards, projecting that "The Revenant" will dominate the ceremony.
- The company is trying to correctly pick Oscar winners for Best Picture, Best Director and the four acting categories for the third straight year. In 2013, before its acquisition by ICC, Farsite Group LLC missed one of the six picks, according to Columbus Business First.
- By ICC's calculations, Leonardo DiCaprio has a 99.6% chance of taking home the Best Actor award for his performance in "The Revenant." The film is also projected to take home the awards for Best Picture and Best Director.
Dive Insight:
Projections for awards ceremonies and other high-profile events are a way for analytics firms to show off their capabilities. If their predictions are right, not only do companies have bragging rights, but they can also gain clients searching for advanced analytic capabilities.
Though Big Data can be fun (think beer), it can also work to streamline an enterprise's business process or allow a company to optimize their use of technology.
The ICC casts its predictions by plugging various data points into statistical models. Among other factors, the company uses past trends for each category, winners from throughout the season and previous nominations and awards for the nominees to project the winners, according to Business First. Once the data points are assembled, it just becomes a matter of statistical modeling. The more data points involved, the more honed the results.
The most-contested category for ICC is Best Supporting Actor because the predictions lean heavily in the results of the Screen Actors Guild awards. But this year, Idris Elba took home the award for his performance in "Beasts of No Nation," but was not nominated for the Oscar. ICC said Sylvester Stallone is the favorite to win the award with a 51.7% chance of taking home the statue for his performance in "Creed."
ICC also said Brie Larson has an 84.6% chance of winning Best Actress and Alicia Vikander has a 96.8% chance of winning Best Supporting Actress.
